The Neocolonial Energy Crisis

Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, November/December 2022, pp. 42-43

Special Report

By Hajira Asghar

EUROPE IS IN for a bitter winter. Across the region, an energy crisis spurred from the Russian invasion of Ukraine has only begun to wreak havoc on consumers and businesses. Reliance on natural gas sourced through Russian pipelines has left many nations in a precarious position as winter inches closer. OPEC Plus, the coalition of oil-producing nations led by Russia and Saudi Arabia, announced plans on Oct. 5 to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day, a move which is expected to increase the price per barrel, further exacerbating fears of a recession and geopolitical tensions. This situation is only expected to worsen with the recent announcement of Kremlin annexation of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia territories, which encompass around 15 percent of Ukrainian land, the alleged sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and Ukraine’s recent petition for NATO membership.

Bracing for mass social unrest and economic recession, the European Union has been in crisis mode in desperate attempts to pivot to new suppliers. In Germany, a historic dependence on Russian energy has left the nation in a particularly uncomfortable position with calls for the closure of manufacturing facilities deemed non-essential and rationing amidst blackouts and uncertainty. In the United Kingdom, the energy crisis has resulted in a 200 percent increase in energy bills compared to last winter. While price cuts and calls for conservation have been announced across the board, the very real possibility for political uprising remains an underlying concern, especially as right-wing coalitions and leaders have gained steam in recent elections from Sweden to Italy. The conditions of the energy crisis leave the working-poor particularly vulnerable to populist and isolationist messaging, which many leaders fear will strike a chord and pose a challenge to the prevailing liberal-democratic order. 

This is especially true for French President Emmanuel Macron, who was recently re-elected with a very narrow margin against his far-right opponent. With the precedent of the Yellow Vest protests as a testament to the discontent of the French population, the pressure to ameliorate the frustrations of the masses becomes a matter of political preservation. With this in consideration, Macron recently made an official visit to Algeria, whose brutal French settler-colonial legacy remains an open wound. Only through violent struggle was Algeria able to achieve independence from France after over a century of ruthless occupation. 

The historically volatile dynamic between the two nations remains palpable, making this recent diplomatic visit a matter of particular concern. After Russia and Norway, Algeria is one of the largest exporters of natural gas to Europe. The timing of the visit was undeniably marked with desperation. The result was a tentative energy deal which would increase the exports of Algerian energy to France by 50 percent. The default reliance upon historically exploitative relations in Europe’s time of crisis signals an enduring colonial process that many have been wary to confront.

While France’s pivot to Algeria can be seen as opportunistic at best, in Yemen, the situation signals a disturbing return to the plunder of Africa. In mid-August, French troops stationed in Yemen reportedly moved to militarily secure the Balhaf gas facility in the resource-rich Shabwa province. While the French Foreign Legion ostensibly acted in protection of the infrastructure, the neocolonial dynamic of resource extraction remains evident. Yemen’s brutal civil war between the Houthi rebels and Saudi-backed government has waged on for more than a decade with extensive human cost. According to the United Nations, the conflict has resulted in an estimated 377,000 deaths, 60 percent of which can be attributed to famine and lack of healthcare. Within the context of the world’s largest humanitarian crisis in Yemen, the military actions of the French government signal a shameless venture to secure resources despite the ethos of self-determination and sovereignty under which support for Ukraine is purported to be rooted. As global food shortages and energy crises hit the Global South, war-torn nations like Yemen will bear the brunt while shouldering the burden of European needs.

While Europe’s energy scramble has taken a nefarious return to its tradition of exploitation, an underexplored alternative exists in energy relations with the nation possessing the second largest natural gas reserves on the planet: Iran. The Islamic Republic has not only the capacity to supply Europe with the resources it so desperately needs but has indicated a desire to do so. While this transaction appears rational on its surface, the geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States have rendered this prospect virtually impossible. 

In 2015, the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) was forged under the Obama administration which tentatively laid the foundation for a natural gas pipeline running between Iran and Europe known as the “Pars Pipeline.” As Trump assumed office in 2017, however, the deal was rashly abandoned, substituted with an escalation of sanctions. The coercive measures enlisted by the United States sought to economically isolate Iran from potential trade partners. In hindsight, many European nations are forced to confront the reality that had America not abandoned the roundtable with Iran and had the prospective pipeline between Iran and Europe  been established, the energy crisis would not have been so critical. 

As European nations panic-purchase natural gas from Qatar and continue to deplete the market, the Global South will be left to fight for the crumbs. In the case of Pakistan, disastrous flooding has all but collapsed the nation’s energy sector. The Pakistani government recently put out a $1 billion tender for gas and received no offers. Anxiety inducing conditions of blackouts, food shortages from blocked Ukrainian grain exports and inflation have produced a recipe for disaster. As the situation becomes critical, many will recall the attempted natural gas “Peace Pipeline” between Pakistan and Iran, which ultimately failed to materialize due to economically coercive sanctions applied by the U.S. As alternative plans are underway to circumvent the wrath of the United States, the nations of the Global South face a situation of precarity without the privilege of bargaining power that European NATO member nations have.

As of early September, in the midst of Europe’s deepening crisis and in light of a new administration in Washington, DC, Iran has indicated a renewed effort to restore the JCPOA, during the latest round of Vienna talks. Whether or not President Joe Biden decides to turn the tide of adversarial relations with Iran may be contingent upon how European nations choose to navigate their energy demands on the global stage. Should the European Union reach a point of exasperation, new pressure may emerge to ease the sanctions in place against Iran. This in turn could usher in a new era of alternative financial channels, and ultimately, a shifting global order under which the hegemony of the United States wanes as total arbiter. 

The reality exists that the trajectory of both the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis signal escalation which will inevitably force a geopolitical reckoning. As the Global South bears the brunt of the energy crisis, the uprisings unfolding in Sri Lanka and blackouts in Pakistan serve as a harrowing glimpse into the chaos to come. With pressure from both below and above, a transformative process could emerge as a glimmer of hope amidst the horror.

Hajira Asghar is a Washington, DC-based writer and founder of Students Against Imperialism at the George Washington University.

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